NBA preseason DFS can be tough to predict due to the erratic distribution of minutes.
While there will always be randomness, we can at least use some numbers to give us context. This can be useful for daily fantasy basketball lineup building.
The below stats look at two different factors: the coach, and the number of games remaining in the preseason for that team. Unlike the NFL, the NBA does not have a consistent number of preseason games for each team each season. In particular, the 2017-18 preseason was at most 6 games. Therefore, looking at games remaining gives us a better view.
Some notes:
- Data is from the past 6 seasons (2012-13 through 2017-18).
- Data is based on who coached the preseason. This means Steve Kerr is the coach for the 2015-16 Warriors. This also means we don’t have data for any coaches that haven’t coached in the preseason yet.
Table 1: Starters average minutes by games remaining by season.
- Minutes increase as the games left decrease. This is a logical result – more minutes for the starters the closer you get to real games, with a slight dip in the last game.
- Teams have decreased the minutes for their starters by a little over 10% over the past few seasons. Considering that teams also play fewer preseason games, this represents a sizable decrease in total minutes played by starters during the preseason.
| Games Left | 2012-13 | 2013-14 | 2014-15 | 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26.19 | 25.92 | 25.67 | 24.58 | 24.12 | 23.83 | 25.05 |
| 2 | 26.13 | 26.28 | 26.02 | 25.79 | 25.41 | 24.32 | 25.66 |
| 3 | 26.19 | 25.09 | 25.23 | 22.78 | 22.9 | 23.11 | 24.22 |
| 4 | 24.65 | 25.22 | 25.55 | 22.85 | 23.25 | 22.09 | 23.94 |
| 5 | 24.65 | 24.14 | 23.94 | 23.18 | 22.15 | 20.9 | 23.16 |
| 6 | 23.09 | 23.45 | 23.33 | 22.34 | 21.14 | 17.91 | 21.88 |
| 7 | 22.55 | 22.96 | 22.09 | 21.3 | 20.88 | - | 21.96 |
| 8 | 24.33 | 23.4 | 21.9 | 21.98 | 20.89 | - | 22.50 |
| Average | 24.72 | 24.56 | 24.22 | 23.10 | 22.59 | 22.03 | - |
Table 2: Starters average minutes by coach.
- Not surprising to see Tom Thibodeau leading the list at 25.94 minutes per starter per game. He is notorious for running his players heavy minutes. In fact, he had Jimmy Butler play all 48 minutes of a preseason game in 2012.
- However, his lead is small, with Doc Rivers basically exactly equal, and several other coaches not far behind.
- At the other end we have Kenny Atkinson at 20.9 minutes, almost 20% less than Thibs.
- Gregg Popovich being tied for 2nd lowest isn’t surprising – he is known for limiting playing time during the regular season as well.
Table 3: Starters average minutes by coach by season.
Similar to the above data, but broken down by season. This allows you to see changes in coaches approaches over time or dive into specific seasons. Use the search feature to narrow down by coach, season, or team.
- While Tom Thibodeau has the highest average over the past 6 seasons, it was Mike D’Antonio leading all coaches last season, at a massive 28.01 minutes per starter per game.
- Scott Brooks’ starters only averaged 19.5 minutes per game, more than 30% less than D’Antonio.
- An additional Thibs note: he does seem to be pulling back his starter’s minutes. In 2012-13 they averaged 28.63 minutes, but the average has been below 25 minutes for the past two seasons.
- Brett Brown has also pulled back significantly – 27.23 minutes in 2013-14, down to 20.95 minutes last season.
Table 4: Starters average minutes by coach by games remaining.
This final table breaks down the data by coach and games remaining. Be aware of small sample sizes – look at the trend, not just the exact numbers.