Sports Analytics by Scott Hanna-Riggs
NBA DFS (daily fantasy sports) players are often concerned with the risk of a blowout. Particularly for star players, the idea is stars can’t hit value if they’re only playing 3 quarters. I used the complete 2017-18 season, spread data from OddsShark.com and box score data from Basketball-Reference.com. The scoring is based on DraftKings (DK) …
As part of a review of the impact of Vegas spreads on daily fantasy performance, I put together a basic summary of NBA overtime rate based on spread. Having a game go to overtime can obviously be a big bonus in DFS, especially if you have stacked multiple players on both teams. However, the numbers …
Looking at triple-doubles per 100 possessions controls for pace of play and minutes played. This allows us to get a better idea of players true production. The traditional triple-double can be easily influenced. Oscar Robinson’s 1961-62 season is a great example – high minutes, high pace. We’ll see below that this season doesn’t look as …
Pace is a measure of the number of possessions a team uses per 48 minutes. Even with modern record keeping, this is an estimate. Box score numbers can’t tell us exactly how many possessions each team had. Add in things like team turnovers (turnovers that aren’t attributed to any particular player), and estimating possessions can …
The pace of the game and minutes played both influence the traditional triple-double. To control for these factors, I’ve simply adjusted the focus. Let’s look at triple-doubles per 100 possessions. To be clear, that means averaging at least 10 rebounds, 10 points, and 10 assists per 100 possessions played. I’ve also required 1000 minutes played. …